Tuesday, January 29, 2008

All eyes on Fed this week

Last friday Dow suffer with a -177 freefall causing Monday bloodshed in Asia countries. This is to be expected. Last night Dow recover 170++ points which puts it back to last thurday's closing. By simple logic, today's market should be like last friday's. But no it did not even recover 20% at all. Why?

People are profit taking now or are markets all over the world trying to depress itself so that Fed will cut rate once again. Based on most readings, most expect another 50bps. So if tomorrow Fed don't give what the world wants, will the world turn South big time? I think it might be. It might be the big one for the month of Feb. Even if the Fed cut 50bps will the market rally. Mini rally yes big one no as the market has now expect and demand that rate cut. Will the Fed cut more than 50bps? Hardly if they cut anymore that means a total of >125bps within less than 2 weeks! Gosh wonder what will that do to the dollar.

So what is my take on all this. Stay clear of the market wait for clearer signal before entering. If you really want to enter, enter with deep pocket, enter the market with spare cash and not your daily makan money!

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